Abstract: In the end of February, the Yangtze spot price of aluminum fell to 14,500 yuan A00 / ton, aluminum prices have fallen below the cost line most of the country, however, the domestic aluminum prices are not signs of a sharp cut.
By the end of February, the Yangtze spot price of aluminum fell to 14,500 yuan A00 / ton, aluminum prices have fallen below the cost line most of the country, however, the domestic aluminum prices are not signs of a sharp cut. Overcapacity heavy pressure, companies cut willingness weak, "Cost l" and "profit drop" and multiple threats, aluminum prices continue to erode the living space.
February 28, 2013, the Yangtze River Nonferrous A00 aluminum spot market price reported 14,480 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day down 40 yuan / ton; fell 580 yuan over the beginning / ton, down 3.9%; compared with the same period in 2012 decreased by 1430 yuan / ton, down 9.0%; compared with the same period in 2011 decreased by 2,220 yuan / ton, down 13.3%; compared with the same period in 2010 decreased by 1,770 yuan / ton, a decrease of 10.9%. Current aluminum prices have dropped to the lowest level since the same period in 2010.
Aluminum smelting overcapacity serious
The camp network data show that as of the end of January 2013, the completion of China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 27,196,000 tons, which laid an important foundation for primary aluminum production growth. Between 2010 to 2012, China's aluminum production was 15.652 million tons, 17.554 million tons and 19.883 million tons, up 19.9% growth, respectively, 11.2% and 13.2%. 2011 ~ 2012 aluminum smelting main business revenue increased 24.2% and 12.7%, respectively, of which the main business income in 2012 is lower than the growth rate of output growth, reflecting the weak aluminum prices in the last run.
The highest proportion in the price of aluminum smelting costs, amounting to more than 40%. 2011 price increases of twice the average increase rate was 1.67 points and 3 points. To produce 14,500 tons of aluminum consumption of electricity is calculated, the cost of an average increase of 677 yuan / ton. Statistics show that in 2012 our main business costs increase aluminum smelting enterprises above designated size up 16.3 percent, higher than the main business revenue increased 3.7 percentage points, resulting in a significant decline in profits.
Aluminum facing difficulties
Aluminum inventories high. International Aluminium Institute (IAI) 2 月 announced on the 26th data show that by the end of January 2013 global aluminum inventories increased by 35,000 to 2,310,000 tons. According to the annual consumption of 48 million tons of aluminum a global basis, inventory scale is equivalent to the annual consumption of nearly 5%, equivalent to half of global consumption. London Metal Exchange (lme) by the end of February was 5.162 million tons of aluminum stock, representing an increase by the end of January 5075 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum stocks in early March was 48.2 million tons, representing an increase of 57,731 tons early February, an increase of 13.6%.
Losses are not discontinued. Current aluminum prices have been lower than the national cost of most aluminum wire, but did no substantial cut signs. In the Southwest, for example, in addition to Baise Silversea Aluminum Co., Ltd. 450,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity shut down outside, Guizhou, Sichuan, Yunnan and other places electrolytic aluminum enterprises are in full production. The camp network data, in January 2013, electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 24,567,000 tons run, accounting for 90.3 percent of total capacity.
Demand growth than production growth. The world's leading aluminum producer Rusal, Alcoa, Hydro etc. have expected 2013 global aluminum consumption rate will accelerate to 7 percent or while China Aluminum aluminum production growth remained at around 10%, the Middle East and India increased production led to rapid growth in global aluminum production. Japanese trading company Marubeni Corporation (MarubeniCorp) said it expects 2013 global aluminum market is expected oversupply of 202,000 tons, an increase of 22% compared with 2012.